Tokyo sees first rise in births in a decade as marriage support expands

Tokyo reported a 1.0% increase in births among Japanese residents in 2025, its first rise in 10 years, alongside a 4.0% jump in marriages for a second straight year. The city is pairing financial support, matchmaking, and workplace reforms in an effort to ease family formation and child-rearing costs.

Why it matters: - Tokyo’s latest demographic data offer a modest sign that family formation may be stabilizing after years of late marriage, falling births, and high child-rearing costs. - The city’s response matters because Tokyo is trying to influence decisions at every stage of family life, from partner matching to child care. - The trend is still tentative, and officials do not claim the policies have proven causation.

What happened: - Births among Japanese residents in Tokyo rose 1.0% in 2025, the first increase in a decade. - Marriages in Tokyo rose 4.0% in 2025, marking a second consecutive year of growth. - Tokyo designated 2026 as a special year to encourage marriage. - The city staged a flagship event on Aug. 8, 2026, a symbolic “8/8/8” date in Reiwa 8. - The event drew 55,000 visitors. - On Aug. 8 alone, 7,650 couples filed marriage registrations in Tokyo. - That single-day total exceeded all marriage registrations recorded in Tokyo during the entire month of August the previous year.

The details: - A 2025 survey by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research found that more than 75% of respondents intended to marry. - The share of people who never marry has continued to rise in Japan. - In 2020, the never-married rate reached 23.8% for men, up from 20.1% in 2010. - For women, the rate reached 17.8% in 2020, up from 10.6% a decade earlier. - A 2021 Tokyo Metropolitan Government survey found that nearly 70% of unmarried people who hoped to marry were not taking any action to find a partner. - Tokyo launched the AI-powered matchmaking service TOKYO Enmusubi in September 2024. - The service is open to single adults 18 and older who live, work, or study in Tokyo. - The service has attracted around 16,000 registered users. - As of August 2026, 816 couples had entered serious relationships through the service. - Of those, 302 couples had married. - TOKYO Enmusubi uses a proprietary assessment to match users with potential partners. - Applicants must submit identity verification documents and proof of single status. - Applicants must also complete an online interview before joining. - Tokyo supports marriage and family formation across multiple stages, including meeting a partner, marriage, pregnancy, childbirth, and child-rearing. - The 018 Support program provides financial support to all Tokyo residents from birth through age 18, regardless of household income. - Tokyo has expanded tuition-free childcare. - Tokyo helps with school meal costs. - Tokyo has worked to make high school tuition effectively free regardless of family income. - A provisional survey this year found that 35.5% of parents cited child-rearing and education costs as a major concern. - That was down from 36.0% in 2025 and about 48% in each of the previous two years. - In 2022, Tokyo coined the term ikugyo to frame child care as important work rather than a break from work. - Tokyo says workplace understanding and cooperation are essential for parental leave. - Public awareness and workplace efforts have contributed to a steady increase in fathers taking parental leave in Tokyo. - Nearly 90% of parents raising children in Tokyo say their local area is a good place to raise a family.

Between the lines: - Tokyo is combining symbolic events, technology, and financial support because no single policy appears sufficient to move marriage and birth trends. - The AI matchmaking service suggests the city sees social connection, not just subsidies, as part of the fertility challenge. - The emphasis on workplace culture shows Tokyo also views parenthood as a labor and time problem, not only a cost problem. - The rise in births and marriages may reflect broader social easing, but the release stops short of proving the policies caused the change.

What's next: - Tokyo is likely to keep promoting marriage support, child-rearing aid, and workplace reform as part of its population strategy. - Officials say they will continue trying to reduce anxieties around marriage and child-rearing. - The key test is whether the latest gains in marriages and births can continue beyond 2025.

The bottom line: - Tokyo is betting that easier partner-finding, lower child-rearing costs, and friendlier workplaces can help more residents move from intention to family formation.